#avr Logs

Jun 19 2021

03:17 AM specing_ is now known as specing
09:59 AM twnqx: hm. i never really realized that before when buying 5 or maybe 10 chips
09:59 AM twnqx: but whenever you want 5-10k instead, there seems usually no stock...
09:59 AM twnqx: or not enough stock.
12:56 PM Rab: twnqx, which distributors?
12:59 PM Rab: I go to Mouser/Digi-Key first for small quantities (I'd put Newark/Farnell in there as well), but there are more "serious" distributors which typically have a high minimum order qty.
01:10 PM Rab: Usually you can contact a manufacturer directly, or scan their website, to find their official regional distributors. Then calling those distributors gives you a pretty good idea of availability, lead time, minimum factory pack qty, etc.
02:19 PM skempf: What is the primary driver in the chip supply issue?
02:20 PM Emil: Hoarding
02:21 PM Emil: Everyone and their mom are makinh purchases to cover future production
02:24 PM Emil: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26583791
02:36 PM twnqx: hoarding is a driver, bit it's only the result of earlier issues killing just-in-time production
02:37 PM twnqx: one issue is transport - wafer are flown all over the world to be packages into chips, transport is often done in the cargo holds of commercials airliners, commercial airliners basically stopped during the pandemic
02:39 PM twnqx: funnily, climate chnage is already a driver - both pure silicon production and chip manufacturing was caught up in droughts in china/taiwan, leading to less energy production from hydro plants, and shut down in chip production
02:40 PM twnqx: a few strategic fires and corona-induced production shutdowns for one of the very few specialty plastic producers for chip casings seems to be a part, too
02:40 PM twnqx: radically changed demand (oh, home office? need to buy laptops, now!) is a driver
02:42 PM twnqx: particularly car companies saying "oh, we will have to stop production, just cancel the orders" "oh, now we need the chips order them - what, they produced something else and were not waiting for us? HOW DARE THEY!" are a driver
02:43 PM twnqx: the end result of that is that everyone and their dog says "well, fuck this, if we do just-in-time, it has to work, if it doesn't work we have to stockpile"
02:44 PM twnqx: so now... everyone stockpiles.
02:46 PM Emil: Ie hoarding :D
02:46 PM twnqx: well yeah
02:46 PM Emil: But sure it's more logical hoarding
02:46 PM twnqx: if we are forced to wait for our mid-of-2021-production run until end of 2022
02:46 PM Emil: and not irrational, though that does happen too
02:46 PM twnqx: you can be sure we stockpile until 2024
02:47 PM twnqx: of course that takes tens of thousands of chios from others
02:47 PM twnqx: (including apple *grml*)
02:48 PM twnqx: sometimes you even involuntarily stockpile.
02:48 PM twnqx: most of ours chips arrive this august, the last one netx year august... what do we do until then, sell the chips temporarily? :P
03:03 PM skempf: So, it sounds like it is more ripple effects in the supply chain impacting just-in-time production, rather than trade disputes.
03:10 PM twnqx: oh, yeah, trade disputes are not involved
03:18 PM specing_ is now known as specing
11:05 PM nonlinea_ is now known as zero-xray